This paper is from Session 3I: Teaching Bayesian Statistics
which comes under Topic 3: Statistics education at the post-secondary level Full topic list
(Monday 3rd, 10:30-12:30)
Unpredictability, probability updating and the Three Prisoners Paradox
AbstractThis paper discusses the Three Prisoners paradox in the light of three different procedures for the updating of probabilities - Bayesian conditioning, superconditioning and Jeffrey’s rule - as well as assuming the unpredictability of receipt of information by prisoner A. The formulation of the paradox in this temporal setting brings new insight to the problem and, on the other hand, the paradox is a good way to explain the different updating probability procedures and the difference between conditional probabilities and posterior distributions.